Jakarta. The chief executive of Adaro Energy, Indonesia's biggest coal miner by market capitalization, said thermal coal prices have bottomed and will increase in 2017 along with rising import demand from China and Southeast Asia.
Cargo prices for Australian thermal coal from Newcastle , seen as the Asian benchmark, have soared more than a third this year to above $70 a metric ton — the highest since a spike in April last year — pushed by surprise increases in Chinese imports.
China's coal industry is struggling with excess supply and the government has vowed to slash mine capacity by 250 million metric tons this year, as the world's top producer and consumer of coal shifts to a more consumer-driven economy.
"As a result of the closures, supply will decline. If supply declines, they will probably import," Adaro CEO Garibaldi Thohir told reporters.
"Prices will definitely improve," he said. "They can't just turn off [the power] like that."
Demand will also increase slightly next year, Thohir said, due to purchases from India, Vietnam, Thailand and others in Southeast Asia.
Adaro is on track to reach its production target of 52 million to 54 million tonnes this year, Thohir said, up from output of 51.46 million tonnes in 2015. About three-quarters of the production will be exported.
"We will stick to our plan," Thohir said, noting that it was not easy for the company to increase output despite improving prices and demand this year.
Indonesia, the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, has seen its output fall during a price lull that began early last year, and many of its miners have been unable to raise production due to debt constraints.
In June, Thohir said he expected fewer than 10 Indonesian coal producers would survive out of hundreds as cash flows dried up because of low prices.
The amount of coal-fired power generation under development worldwide has shrunk by 14 percent this year, driven down by China as it struggles with oversupply and tries to promote cleaner energy, a study showed last week.
Reuters